Thursday, December 04, 2008

 

Changing Geopolitical Dynamics

Bingo. Barnett nails it.
oil prices drop, but not food prices.
That’s why I argue in Great Powers that, in the 21st century, the global food nets eclipse the global energy nets as the most important flow. Think also bio terror and climate change.
In short, we go from a world in which energy is harvested in one place and consumed in another to one in which it’s food that experiences such great movement–a reversal of roles. In this century, energy will increasingly be harvested and consumed locally, while it’s food that’s harvested in one place and moved great distances to consumers.
That last sentence is huge. The sort of big thinking assessment of geopolitical dynamics that keeps me reading Barnett. Colocation of energy and consumption is the natural solution - resilience to environmental disruptions as well as terrorism, combined with economic incentives all point in that direction. So, once that shift begins to happen, what become the critical global flows? Food. Somebody ought to simulate/game the geopolitical dynamics of that world. [Another great simulation would focus on the development of local energy generation platforms - sort of like IFTF’s Sperstruct meets John Robb.]

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