Friday, April 19, 2013

 

Stop Lumping Iran in with China

A perfectly serviceable Bloomberg article about the DF-21D makes a misstep in its final sentence:
Analysts including Mark Gunzinger, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, and some naval officers worry that the new carriers, while formidable warships, may not be able to get close enough for their planes to attack enemies, such as China and Iran, that are armed with precision- guided anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles.
Regarding precision ballistic missiles, Iran's attempts to turn the Fateh-110 into an ASBM seem to my eyes to be an Iranian PSYOP to ride on the Chinese coattails.  Setting aside the difference in guidance between it and the DF-21D, there is the big issue of range.  The Fateh-110 has a 300 km range while the DF-21D has a range in excess of 1,500 km.  In other words, even if the Fateh-110 was a real system that could credibly threaten a CSG (and, to repeat, I question that conclusion), then the carrier could safely stand off outside of its range and still generate sorties.

Regarding ASCMs, The 2013 IISS Military Balance lists Iran has having C-701, C-704, C-802A with ranges of 20 km, 35 km and 180 km, respectively.  So, again, even if we grant the Iranians the ability to target and launch these systems at maximum range, a CSG could still stand-off outside their range and still be able to generate sorties over the Iranian mainland.

Iran is not in China's league.  Every time an article mention them in the same breath as China, they get a little free prestige boost.  Cut it out.



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