Opposed Systems Design

So let their arrogance lead [the Chinese] into situations that their wisdom will eventually rescue them from.
…Primary point of this admittedly snotty rant: don’t get wrapped around the hype. Countries, just like people, grow into roles. Whether they’re “ancient civilizations” or not, their current rise puts them in unfamiliar territory, and no, there ain’t no ancient Chinese secrets for what lies ahead. Everybody is making it up as they go along, because a global landscape with multiple rising, prosperous, and strangely peaceful great powers is completely unprecedented.But it was bought with your US tax dollars, so show some pride and act–as they say in the NFL–like you’ve been in the great-powers’ endzone before. As always: play up to potential and not down to the competition, but respect the competition

Playing the role of mature elder partner is a new role for the U.S., but I think we can do it. I am not as cynical as some who believe we remain a pathologically immature nation.

Average oil price: $76.56 (though 2 June 2010)
Threshold needed for Simmons to win: $223.26 ($200 in 2005 dollars)
This means that oil prices would have to average $329.13 for the rest of the year in order to Simmons to win. Looks like he’ll have lots of time to decide how he’ll handle his loss.
One can always fight rearguard actions by arguing that “if we’d had our bet over this other time frame I’d have won,” or “the principle still stands, I just misapplied it here,” or “of course I never expected to win; I just wanted to gain attention for the issue.” That last argument is the debating equivalent of a teenager saying “I never wanted that stupid prize anyway” and an artist saying “the point of the artwork was to provoke thought.” But if we’re trying to improve our understanding of the world, then we need to be willing to change our views based upon new information. I hope that the peak oil crowd’s loss causes some people to reconsider the sufficiency of the Hubbert model for making macro policy decisions. But given how much reputation some people have invested in the issue, I am not optimistic about the likelihood of many people actually reconsidering their position.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that a North Korean border guard shot dead three Chinese citizens and wounded one last week in northeast China, prompting the Chinese government to file a formal complaint.
…It was unclear how the shootings would affect relations between North Korea and China, which is North Korea’s closest ally in the region.

With behavior like this, I wonder how long it will take China to get fed up with North Korea and decide that it wants to create a better option. China might wish to maintain the status quo but North Korea has been the one upsetting that status quo. If China can’t control the current North Korean regime, then will it play a more active role in shaping the next regime?